Interim Report Q1/2026, 13 May 2026:
The following outlook information is based on materials published by the Confederation of Finnish Industries EK and Statistics Finland.
Uncertainty about the direction of the global economy has increased significantly in the early part of the year due to the war in Iran. Forecasts for the development of the global economy are contingent on the duration of the war, and global economic growth is expected to slow considerably if hostilities or uncertainty persist into the latter part of the year. In the most favorable scenarios, global economic growth of approximately 3 percent would be maintained in 2026. Among the major economic regions, the projected figures are the weakest for Europe, where the rate of growth would be approximately 1 percent if the war were to end within the next few months. The quick resumption of stable energy shipments is pivotal to the development of the global economy.
The economic outlook for Finnish companies improved somewhat in the early part of the year, but the outlook remains weak in many industries. Companies’ expectations regarding the future are modest, and views of the near future are characterized by uncertainty. The confidence indicator for retail trade strengthened and was above the long-term average in April. Sales have increased in retail trade, and sales expectations for the coming months show confidence in spite of subdued domestic demand. However, consumer confidence, which was already at a weak level, continued to deteriorate during the early part of the year. In April 2026, consumers’ estimates concerning the current state of their personal finances and expectations for both the future of their personal finances and the development of the Finnish economy were very weak. Consumers considered the timing for purchasing durable goods to be very unfavorable, and their views concerning unemployment remained bleak. Consumers’ estimates concerning inflation and expectations for its future development rose.
(Confederation of Finnish Industries EK: Business Tendency Survey, April 2026; Confidence Indicators, April 2026. Statistics Finland: Consumer Confidence, April 2026.)
The working-day-adjusted turnover of Finnish retail trade grew by 4.2 percent in March compared to the previous year, and the volume of sales increased by 3.9 percent. The cumulative working-day-adjusted turnover of retail trade in January–March of 2026 increased by 3.6 percent while the volume of sales grew by 3.2 percent.
(Statistics Finland: Turnover of Trade, March 2026.)
The global economic environment has remained relatively stable despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and increased tensions. The world economy is forecasted to grow by 3.3 percent in 2026, driven particularly by emerging economies. Among the major economic regions, growth is weakest in Europe; however, the euro area is still expected to grow by 1.3 percent this year. Risks related to economic development are associated especially with the unstable trade policy environment and the rapid changes in transatlantic relations.
Economic development in Finland has been subdued, and no significant changes have taken place in the economic outlook for Finnish companies in recent months. The situation across all industries remains weaker than average, while companies’ expectations regarding the future continue to be moderately positive and confidence in the economy among companies has slightly strengthened. The confidence indicator for retail trade also turned positive towards the end of 2025 and continued to improve in January. However, growth in retail sales has remained slow, and demand is sluggish in many areas. Nevertheless, sales expectations for the coming months are positive. On the other hand, consumer confidence, which has remained at a low level for a prolonged period, weakened further towards the end of 2025. Consumers’ estimates concerning the current state of their personal finances were very weak, and expectations both for the future of their personal finances and the development of the Finnish economy remained muted. In January, consumers considered the timing for purchasing durable goods to be unfavorable and fear of unemployment increased. Consumers’ estimates concerning inflation and expectations for its future development declined but remained at a fairly high level.
(Confederation of Finnish Industries EK: Business Tendency Survey, January 2026; Confidence Indicators, January 2026. Statistics Finland: Consumer Confidence, January 2026.)
The working-day-adjusted turnover of Finnish retail trade grew by 2.0 percent in December compared to the previous year, and the volume of sales increased by 0.7 percent. The cumulative working-day-adjusted turnover of retail trade in 2025 increased by 1.5 percent while the volume of sales decreased by 0.3 percent.
(Statistics Finland: Turnover of Trade, December 2025.)