Interim Report 1-6/2024, 15 August 2024
The following outlook information is based on materials published by the Confederation of Finnish Industries EK and Statistics Finland.
The world economy outlook has remained largely unchanged. The world economy is estimated to grow 3.2 percent in 2024, but the growth rate will vary clearly between markets. Growth in the Euro area in 2024 is expected to be only 0.9 percent. Inflation development and potentially lower interest rates remain central factors in the global economy.
The economic outlook for Finland continues to be weak, despite the estimates regarding the current situation slightly improving. The expectations of companies for the future development of the economy have also increased somewhat. The confidence indicator for retail trade continued to decline during the summer and is both clearly below the long-term average and lower than in other EU countries on average. Retail sales have decreased, and sales expectations for the coming months have weakened. Consumer confidence has strengthened slightly but remains clearly below the long-term average. Estimates concerning the current state of personal finances as well as that of Finland’s economy are at a low level. Expectations for the future of personal finances and Finland’s economy are also muted. Estimates concerning inflation and expectations for its future development continue to be at a fairly high
level.
(Confederation of Finnish Industries EK: Business Tendency Survey, July 2024; Confidence Indicators, July 2024. Statistics Finland: Consumer Confidence, July 2024.)
The working-day-adjusted turnover of Finnish retail trade increased by 0.3 percent in June compared to the previous year and the volume of sales increased by 0.1 percent. The cumulative working-day-adjusted turnover of retail trade in the January-June period decreased by 1.0 percent and the volume of sales decreased by 1.1 percent. (Statistics Finland: Turnover of Trade, retail trade flash estimate, June 2024.)