Interim Report 1-9/2024, 6 November 2024
The following outlook information is based on materials published by the Confederation of Finnish Industries EK and Statistics Finland.
The world economy outlook has remained largely unchanged. The world economy is estimated to grow 3.2 percent in 2024, but the growth rate will vary clearly between markets. Growth in the Euro area in 2024 is expected to reach only 0.8 percent. Despite the fairly positive general view of economic development, major risks exist, related to geopolitical developments in particular.
The economic outlook for Finnish companies continues to be weak. However, a moderate recovery is estimated to have begun. The confidence indicator for retail trade improved slightly during the fall but remains clearly below both the long-term average in Finland and other EU countries on average at the moment. Retail sales have decreased, and sales expectations for the coming months are cautious. Consumer confidence continued to strengthen slightly but is still clearly below the long-term average. Estimates concerning the current state of personal finances as well as that of Finland’s economy remain at a low level. Expectations for the future of personal finances improved but those of Finland’s economy were slightly weaker than before. Estimates concerning inflation and expectations for its future development continued at a fairly high level.
(Confederation of Finnish Industries EK: Business Tendency Survey, October 2024; Confidence Indicators, October 2024. Statistics Finland: Consumer Confidence, October 2024.)
The working-day-adjusted turnover of Finnish retail trade decreased by 1.5 percent in September compared to the previous year and the volume of sales decreased by 2,2 percent. The cumulative working-day-adjusted turnover of retail trade in the January–September period decreased by 1.5 percent and the volume of sales decreased by 1.7 percent.
(Statistics Finland: Turnover of Trade, retail trade flash estimate, September 2024.)